In a recent evaluation of the gaming landscape, Nintendo is poised to solidify its role as a premier partner for third-party game publishers over the coming five years. This is particularly noteworthy as sales projections for the upcoming Switch 2 suggest extraordinary momentum, potentially exceeding 100 million units sold.
The analysis conducted by DFC Intelligence paints a remarkably optimistic picture for Nintendo, indicating that the company could surpass its own forecasts for the Switch 2 in the short term. DFC experts predict that Nintendo could sell around 15 million units by the end of March 2026—though they venture that the actual figure might climb to as high as 16 million, or even approach 20 million, driven by improvements in manufacturing and logistics.
“Reflecting its historically prudent stance on sales predictions, Nintendo has set a target of 15 million Switch 2 consoles for its fiscal year ending in March 2026,” DFC noted in a report referenced by Nova Play.
When the original Switch launched in March 2017, Nintendo estimated sales at 10 million units for that fiscal period, only to exceed expectations by selling 15 million instead. This historical context bolsters confidence in Nintendo’s current sales ambitions, suggesting their capability to optimize supply chains and navigate tariff complexities effectively.
With the release of Grand Theft Auto VI postponed until 2026, many industry insiders believe that the Switch 2’s launch will act as a major stimulus for gaming investment, particularly in Japan. Nintendo is also set to target local audiences with a competitively priced version of the console.
Looking further ahead, DFC forecasts that by 2029, the Switch 2 could reach sales figures exceeding 100 million units, firmly establishing itself as the leading console platform.
As industry rivalry heats up, both Sony and Microsoft are hinting at upcoming handheld devices and new home consoles expected to surface around 2027. However, should the Switch 2 launch as planned, it could provide Nintendo with a significant advantage over the upcoming PlayStation 6 and next Xbox iterations.
“By 2029, we anticipate the Switch 2 will not only surpass 100 million units sold, but also cement its status as a dominant player in the console market,” DFC reported. “This could represent a transformative opportunity for Nintendo, potentially positioning it as the go-to partner for third-party game developers.”
For context, the original Nintendo Switch has racked up approximately 152 million units in sales since its launch eight years ago. In comparison, the PlayStation 5 has sold around 74.9 million units within four and a half years, and the Xbox Series X/S remains at an estimated 30 million units, though Microsoft has yet to release official numbers on that front.
Historically, only seven gaming platforms have achieved the 100 million sales milestone, with over half belonging to Nintendo, including the Game Boy/Color, Nintendo DS, Wii, and the original Switch, alongside the PlayStation 1, PlayStation 2, and PlayStation 4.
To put things in perspective, the PlayStation 2 currently stands as the all-time best-selling console, boasting around 160 million units sold, while the original Switch is quickly closing the gap, trailing by fewer than 8 million units.
